Reportedly because of the pressure to face reality by the FRA, Amtrak has moved forward with its procurement of new long-distance single-level rail cars. Rail advocates need to understand that the failure to resolve the bilevel standoff was a manufacturing and industrial policy failure of the first order. What Amtrak asked for was far less than what Juan Trippe, CEO of Pan American World Airways, asked of Boeing in producing the 747. It also reflects the lack of a passenger rail car procurement policy designed to develop and maintain a passenger rail car manufacturing base and supply chain.

To attract car builders, Amtrak developed a procurement order for 800 bilevel cars. Instead of adopting a “can do, we can make it work” attitude, car builders appear to have pushed back wanting to stick to their catalog. Given that there are elevators in California Car Café’s, Rocky Mountaineer bi-levels, Alaska Railroad Gold Class bi-levels and Alaska Wilderness Adventure bi-levels, the reported tiff over elevators is likely not driven by engineering concerns but the overly cautious insurance and risk-management departments of the car builders.

That said the manufacturers have reason to be cautious given the lack guaranteed yearly funding for new equipment purchases and the lack of a passenger rail car industrial policy in the US. This policy oversight is compounded when the lack of guaranteed yearly funding is combined with the “Buy America” restrictions. With reportedly a price of $12 million for each bilevel car, the manufacturers were clearly reflecting the reality of Congress’s “stop and go” capital funding for Amtrak and also factoring in a “bankruptcy premium” given financial results of all the other car builders that assumed the initial order for long-distance equipment would lead to further orders.

For both Amtrak and the car manufacturers, I do not see the 2-year timeline as excessive. The work to date has focused on a bilevel envelope. Now these concepts must fit into a single-level envelope, and any new car builders are starting from scratch.

While the delay has been frustrating for advocates, Amtrak deserves some credit for its persistence in trying to develop a signature product for the 21st century market with a wide array of accommodations all while meeting accessibility standards and at the same time retaining traditional separate accessible dining and lounge cars. Amtrak Takes Big Step Towards New Long Distance Trains – Amtrak Media The simple answer would have given us narrow seats for wide aisles and at-seat dining and lounge service from a central commissary car, Amtrak’s efforts seem very customer-focused especially in the areas of equipment reliability and passenger comfort. However, it appears that the premium coach seats, with a 2-1 configuration and greater recline, are the “economy” overnight accommodations.

With no apparent movement regarding the VIA long-distance order, perhaps they are facing the same challenges from the car manufacturers that Amtrak faced. With a single-level order announcement there has been some discussion among advocates of domes. To be accessible domes would have to have elevators. And unlike bilevel elevators which would be used for boarding and detraining when the train is stopped, dome elevators would be used while the train is in motion. A sure issue for manufacturer risk management and insurance departments. So do not look for domes on the new Canadian.

A single-level order does mean more cars, about one-third more. This is a productivity reduction in a competitive environment that requires improved productivity from capital assets. More cars mean additional on-board staffing and higher maintenance costs from having additional trucks, HVAC and control systems, etc. This means elevated operating costs. With no productivity improvement (eastern LD trains) and a productivity decline (western LD trains) Amtrak needs cross-craft Auto Train style work rules to offset some of this forgone equipment productivity.

While the procurement order is for 800 single-level cars, that is the same number as the bilevel order. For the single-level order to match the capacity of the bilevel order the procurement should be for over 1,000 cars. And the price per car is unknown. Given the inflation that has occurred and is occurring during this process is the funding available in the Infrastructure Bill sufficient to completely re-fleet Amtrak or will additional funding be required in the new Surface Transportation Bill?

There is one intriguing result from this exceptionally lengthy process. This manufacturing failure radically changes the cost/benefit equation breakeven point for rebuilding the Superliners vs. new purchases. The analytics that drove Amtrak’s prior thinking was that it was not economic to spend significant scarce capital to rebuild a 40-or 50-year-old car if a new car cost only marginally more. But that has changed, bilevels cannot be acquired and their cost is likely excessive. Also, what is the strategy for Auto Train with its train length restrictions built around Superliners? How does that alter the path in the future?

In a presentation on the new long-distance equipment order, Amtrak indicated that it would undertake an in-depth analysis on extending the service life of Superliners – likely driven by the Auto Train issue and the potential funding short-fall for a complete fleet replacement. So, will the focus simply be fleet replacement, with no cars for route expansion, or will the strategy be to utilize available assets for both fleet replacement and route expansion? If the Air Force is rebuilding B-52 airframes with new engines for a 100-year lifespan, is there a future for the Superliners? For legislators who want additional rail routes would they sponsor a Buy American waiver for Superliner rebuild parts not available at any price in the US?

Finally, it would be interesting if Amtrak, as a demonstration of how bilevels can be developed, took a Superliner I bag-coach, cut a hole in the floor, installed an elevator, and operated it on some trains to see if any issues arose.

Finally, given that Amtrak’s priority is to retire all the Amfleet II’s and perhaps even the Viewliner I’s first, it will be many years before most RailPAC members ride anything but a Superliners out west.